About a month ago I wrote a blog asserting that, unless some new major scandal erupted causing Graham Platner to leave the race, Maine voters would be faced in November with two bad US Senate choices—but for different reasons.

Monday’s apparently credible rape allegation has proven the tipping point for his top Democratic supporters, who had previously downplayed repeated examples of Platner’s egregious behavior in favor of realpolitik, the need to wrest Republican control of the Senate from Trump-worshipping Republicans. The latest revelation was also too much for my own already strained and heavily qualified endorsement.

Now we are told that Platner appears to be holding the Democratic Party hostage — refusing to drop out unless he gets to approve his successor to run for the Senate. Seriously?

Apparently, Platner and his “cabinet” want the party to choose former state Senate president Troy Jackson, who recently came in third in the gubernatorial primary and has now filed papers for a Senate exploratory committee.  In a July 4^th– 6th poll, he was the only candidate ahead of Collins by more than the margin of error.  But this early snapshot has been matched by previous challengers who have ultimately lost to Collins. While Jackson may be the best option for keeping Platner’s rural working-class/progressive supporters from feeling betrayed, he may not reassure moderates (or Portland liberals) or the state’s plurality of independent voters as much as other alternatives.  His profile, especially after a nasty heavily PAC-funded negative campaign, could cost him support in the more conservative 2^nd District despite having previously done well in some communities there under Maine’s ranked-choice system.

The strongest replacement on paper is probably Janet Mills. As a two-term governor, she is known to Maine voters and can credibly run against Susan Collins as a pragmatic Democrat—and not be attacked as a DSA insurgent. She was margin-of-error ahead of Collins in the last two-way poll before she dropped out. But Mills was Chuck Schumer’s choice in the primary and carries that baggage along with her own 53% unfavorability rating.  Most significantly, if elected, she’d be 79 on taking office  and pledged to serve only one term—not an asset in a Senate where seniority (which Collins has) means power.

If Democrats want a replacement who feels serious, competent and less factional, Nirav Shah may be the best non-Mills option. Shah is the former deputy director of the Maine CDC and principal deputy director (and acting director) of the U. S. CDC. His public-health leadership can project steadiness, and he has statewide visibility from his well-regarded role during the pandemic and having finished second in the gubernatorial primary.

Shah could appeal to suburban, college-educated, and moderate voters—and independents. Offering a clean contrast with Platner’s scandals, he is less burdened by old intraparty fights and newer ideological ones. But he has less obvious electoral muscle than Mills or Collins,  and he would need to re-introduce himself fast.

Maine’s first female Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is also reportedly receiving encouragement. She’s a capable communicator, has statewide visibility and political experience and could energize Democratic activists, but she may be easier for Republicans to nationalize as partisan or ideological—and she lost to Collins by a landslide in 2014. Against Collins, Democrats need someone who can win independents, not just consolidate Democrats.

Maine’s second district Congressman Jared Golden might have been a natural, a Democrat re-elected in a district that heavily favored Donald Trump.  But increasing incivility in politics and threats to elected officials and their families have led him to retire after 11 years, swearing off politics altogether. His retirement announcement was poignant and attests to why the electoral process is facing so many losses of good people.

Maine is a real pickup opportunity because Susan Collins is vulnerable but still personally resilient. Platner’s scandals have given Collins an obvious contrast: stability vs chaos, character vs risk.

The clock is ticking. Platner must exit by July 13 at 5 p.m. ET for Democrats to have until July 27 to select a replacement nominee.  The right choice by him would give Collins less reason to present herself as the adult in the room. It would restore the race to being about Collins, and that means about Bret Kavanaugh, abortion rights, health care and Donald Trump.

In the wake of the most recent sexual assault charges, which Platner claims are untrue, he said he would make a decision about withdrawing from the race in terms of what was “the best path forward for the state that I love, the people that I love, the movement I belong to and the goal of defeating Susan Collins.”  If he means what he said, he will withdraw quickly, giving Maine’s Democrats enough days to sort it all out and increase the odds of retiring a longtime Senator who has been a reliable vote for Trump, his nominees and most of his policies.

There’s a need for speed, but also for transparency that is authentic, not just performative. Doing that in just two weeks is a tall order, but it is essential to validate the party’s ultimate decision. This could include some sort of caucus system, a convention, along with candidate debates. A messy backroom replacement could worsen the problem. One hopes that party leaders are already working out an approach that rationalizes the process and validates the party’s next nominee to defeat Susan Collins.

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