A post-election newsletter from a member of Congress proclaimed “Blue Wave.”  Other commentators had similar expressions of euphoria. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Yes, the world felt a lot better on Wednesday.  Robust turnouts in a variety of races across the country and double-digit margins for Democrats of different ideological stripes were the first positive election returns in what seems like a very long time. For example: Abigail Spanberger won the Virginia governor’s race by a larger margin than any Democrat has seen since 1961.  

This success was not just in highly visible races like Virginia and New Jersey’s gubernatorial contests or the redistricting referendum in California. There were Democratic gains in state legislative seats and in a variety of county offices. Democratic incumbents held onto their positions on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court. There were good signs in a variety of down-ballot races, like school board elections in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, Idaho, Houston and elsewhere in the country.  In Georgia, even public utility regulators went blue.

With notable exceptions, the national anti-incumbent animus continues. Clearly, the post-2024 predictions of a fundamental realignment of American politics has not taken place.

To the extent that the elections were nationalized, what we saw was a clear rejection of Donald Trump’s first ten months in office. Consumer optimism is near all-time lows among all groups, and they voted accordingly, frustrated by being rising prices of food (despite what President Trump claims) and other necessities. It seems voters effectively transferred Joe Biden’s 2024 affordability albatross to Trump’s shoulders.

Despite different approaches taken by Democratic Socialist Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani and more centrist governors-elect in Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats largely seemed to set aside their obsessions with toxic identity politics and focus on affordability, the price of groceries and gas, the skyrocketing cost of health care, electricity and housing. Instead of downplaying the risks of porous borders and public safety concerns as they did in 2024, they acknowledged the need for security and lauded the good work of local police. Exit polls confirmed that the Republicans lost many of the gains they had made among Latinos in 2024. Despite how competitive Trump was in New Jersey last year, Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill won nearly 70 percent of Latino voters, well more than twice what Republican Jack Ciattarelli got. But be careful about thinking of all Latinos as a single group. Those in South Texas are different from those in New Jersey, Florida and California.

It should be sobering to remember the Red Wave that was widely predicted in 2022. All the so-called experts predicted huge gains in the House for the GOP and additional pick-ups in the Senate. But that red wave never materialized. A lot can happen between now and the 2026 mid-term elections to make or break a Democratic comeback.  Tuesday’s results are just a first step.

So let’s not get swept away by the “blue wave” declarations.  A blue ripple, definitely. A blue surge, perhaps. A blue tidal wave, definitely not yet. This week’s good news is not necessarily predictive for the mid-terms a year from now.  Trump’s pressure on Republican state legislatures to redraw mid-decade congressional district lines and the GOP’s bowing to that mischief still create problems for the Democrats. As the NY Times put it, we are now in a “nationwide redistricting arms race.”  The California redistricting referendum may cancel out Texas’s shenanigans, but other states are in play and could have a net effect of yielding seven or eight additional GOP seats, and that’s before retirements by people like Jarred Golden (D-Maine.) This all could be worse if the Supreme Court further weakens the Voting Rights Act.

As for 2028, Tuesday’s results most assuredly are not a certain harbinger of a turnaround for the Presidency. Donald Trump’s favorability rating may be at an all-time low for him, but sixty-eight percent of the electorate still view the Democrats unfavorably.  Will Zorhan Mamdani, who won with 50.4 percent of the vote in the largest turnout in half a century, figure out how actually to manage the city of New York effectively? Or will his over-promised Socialist agenda enable Trump to paint him as the face of the out-of-touch Democratic Party? Will left-of-center moderates be able to appeal to independents while not alienating progressive activists well to their left? Can both factions finesse the extreme culture wars and focus on the practical, kitchen-table issues that matter more in people’s daily lives? The successes this week occurred when candidates addressed the local concerns of their disparate electorates. But will intra-party feuding unhinge them in getting behind a successful national leader? That battle is still a couple of years away.

Today’s enthusiasm needs to be sustained and channeled. How will you be involved?

So, sure, enjoy being on the winning side this time, but the bigger work is just beginning.

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